November, 2006
 

| POLITICS & POWER |
Political Developments
and Public Opinion
 
No sooner had the BNP-led alliance finished its tenure than political violence erupted in major cities around the country, leaving more than 25 dead in a matter of two days. But when the President assumed the role of the Chief Advisor to the Caretaker government, Awami League-led Alliance, the immediate past opposition, withdrew its movements, but warned of fresh ones if their demands were not met.

ET survey team was at different public spots-from bus stations to kitchen markets-to gauge people's immediate reaction. It was conducted within the Dhaka metropolitan area and the sample contains 137 randomly selected people who are above 18 years. Although the survey has its limitations (non-response rate was about 20%; in particular, many women approached by our team declined to participate in the survey) and its results may not be generalized to the national level, it nonetheless, we believe, has its share of merits. First, Dhaka attracts a lot of migrants from all around the country and second, many of the electoral constituencies in Dhaka are considered swing ones.

Questionnaire and results follow:

1.Clashes between BNP-led and AL-led alliances have left many dead. What best describes your reaction?

a. I am simply shocked
b. I have no sympathy for those who died as they were politically involved
c. I have become used to such violence
d. Others

That most of the respondents were simply shocked is not surprising. As one respondent puts it, "The photos in the newspapers and television footage were very disturbing. I cannot imagine how people can become so violent."

The results are disturbing, however. Many respondents have very negative perception of politics in Bangladesh and they have no sympathy when people involved in politics die. People who favor a particular alliance may also have chosen answer "b".

2. What best describes the effect on your life due to this political violence? (multiple answers allowed)

a. I could not do my daily activities
b. I was stuck outside Dhaka
c. I incurred economic loss
d. I missed important engagements
e. I got an extended vacation from Eid, so I am not going to complain
f. Others

Very few respondents in the survey say this political violence did not affect their lives negatively.

3. Has your perception on AL-led Alliance changed due to the recent violence?

a. Yes, favorably
b. Yes, unfavorably
c. No


See comments in 4.


4. Has your perception of BNP-led Alliance changed due to the recent violence?

a. Yes, favorably
b. Yes, unfavorably
c. No
Before we conducted the survey, we had thought that an overwhelming number of respondents would say that their perception of either political party changed unfavorably. The results are unexpected, and therefore, we think, more interesting. First, what we find is that most people who say their perception of AL-led Alliance has changed unfavorably also say their perception of BNP-led Alliance has changed favorably and vice versa.
However, about 28% of the respondents say their views of AL-led Alliance and BNP-led Alliance have not changed. In a smaller sub-sample, we asked those respondents who chose "c" to explain their choice. Many of...

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