The
Nobel Peace Prize is
often a prize for courage.
When we think of the
prize we think of Andrei
Sakharov in banishment,
or Nelson Mandela in
his South African prison.
This year's prize is
for a different kind
of bravery, the bravery
it takes to believe
in an idea and to pursue
it. Dr. Yunus literally
put his money, as the
American expression
goes, where his mouth
is. In 1976, he lent
27 of his own dollars
(which must have been
a significant part of
his professor's salary
then) to 42 poor borrowers.
It probably took even
more intellectual courage,
and the clarity he is
famous for, to take
the next step-to draw
the right lesson from
the fact that they all
paid it back. Not the
lesson that a more vain
man might have drawn,
that they were responding
to his unexpected munificence-of
course they were-but
the much more important
fact, that even the
very poor can take a
loan and repay it, when
it makes sense for them
to do so. You can lend
to the poor, just like
you can lend to any
one else, and like everyone
else, how easily you
can get them to pay
it back depends, in
part, on their incentives.
The promise of a future
loan does make it easier
to collect, especially
with the poor who often
have no one else who
would lend to them.
But you also need to
do your due diligence:
make sure that the borrowers
are really in it for
the long-haul, keep
an eye on them to make
sure that things are
not going too far wrong,
prod them a little when
they are late. Like
any other banker.
What makes lending to
the poor harder is simply
the fact that they borrow
so little-a loan of
a few thousand Takas
is a sizeable loan for
them. In part this is
due to their own diffidence
(what would I do with
so much money?), but
it is also because lenders
worry about how someone
would react if he were
handed much more money
than he has ever had.
Would she know how to
use it responsibly?
Or, would it be just
too tempting to take
and run?
The trouble is, even
though they borrow very
little, much of the
work the lender has
to do to be able to
lend to them-the so-called
transactions costs-finding
out where they live,
what they do, what business
they are in, collecting
the money, etc-is not
that different from
what is involved in
making a bigger loan.
This is why most lenders
do not want to lend
to them, and when they
do lend, the interest
rate they charge tends
to be very high.
Yunus' great practical
insight was that the
challenge was to get
the transactions costs
down. This he made his
life's work. This is
why Grameen has the
weekly meetings with
multiple groups (so
that a single loan officer
can collect from many
people at the same time),
the group loans (so
that all the members
have a stake in making
sure that the others
pay), the attempts to
standardize the loans
(eliminates the need
to make a lot of calculations).
All the group activities,
like the chanting of
the four principles,
feed into this as well
(though they may also
be important for other
reasons): By helping
to build a Grameen identity,
they help to mitigate
the usual adversarial
relationship between
the borrower and the
lender.
None of this was obvious
in 1976. I am not quite
of the Dr. Yunus' generation,
but I am old enough
to remember what most
economists were talking
about then: It was socialism
versus capitalism, the
inevitability of the
revolution, the miracle
of the market, big questions
that could be endlessly
debated. To walk away
from all that and to
bury yourself in the
nitty-gritty details
of how best to lend
a few Taka to a few
desperately poor women,
must have taken enormous
courage. When everyone
else was busy changing
the system, what he
was trying to do must
have felt utterly trivial
at times. It must have
taken a lot to keep
going. We are grateful
that he did.
The early efforts, as
he describes in his
book, did not always
go well. Sometimes the
group size was too large;
sometimes the loan size
was wrong. It took a
lot of experimentation,
and willingness to learn
from mistakes to get
there. But they got
there. The Grameen Bank
now charges a maximum
of 10 per cent per year,
conventionally calculated,
compared to interest
rates of 50% or more
that money-lenders and
other private bankers
charge the poor.
The size of that gap,
reflects in part the
benefits of even small
reductions in transactions
cost: One insight from
the recent work on the
economic theory is that
reductions in transactions
costs come with what
economists call a multiplier-one
fall in transactions
costs creates another.
This is because the
initial fall in transactions
cost made it possible
for Grameen to cut its
interest rates; but
a lower interest rate
makes it less likely
that a borrower would
want to default, which
makes life easier for
the lender and reduces
transactions costs further,
which allows Grameen
to cut the interest
rate more and so on.
This is probably one
reason why Grameen can
offer loans that are
so much cheaper than
the market.
The other reason is
of course, subsidies.
Grameen gets a substantial
amount of subsidies
from donors, which it
can pass it on to its
borrowers in the form
of an interest rate
that is below what it
costs to deliver the
loan. From the point
of view of the relation
between the borrower
and lender, it does
not matter whether the
cut in the interest
rate comes from a lowered
transactions cost or
a subsidy. Both set
off the multiplier,
so that the fall in
the interest rate can
be much bigger than
what one would have
otherwise anticipated
(say based on the size
of the subsidy).
For this reason, subsidies
given to micro-credit
organizations can be
a very effective way
of helping the poor,
as long as it does not
undermine the professionalism
of the organization
that is doing the lending.
This is why Dr. Yunus
has always resisted
the almost religious
opposition to all subsidies
one often comes across
in the Microfinance
community, especially
outside South Asia.
The argument that is
usually made is that
the reliance on subsidies
will limit the ability
of these organizations
to grow, which might
have been true had it
not been for Dr. Yunus'
almost magical ability
to get the world to
see micro-credit as
he sees it.
Indeed the danger at
this point is that the
world may be all too
persuaded. Donors love
it, and expect it to
do miracles; I have
even heard how it will
help with AIDS in Africa
(it might, because anything
that brings hope might
help, but it hardly
seems an open and shut
case). Yet we still
do not have a scientific
evaluation of the impact
of micro-credit even
on simple outcomes like
family earnings-the
early attempts to do
impact evaluations have
had obvious flaws, and
together fall well short
of a ringing endorsement.
Several evaluations
that should be much
more credible are under
way now, but it will
be some years before
we start sorting out
real sense of how what
micro-credit can and
cannot do. In the meanwhile
all we really know is
that it has logic in
its favor, and the felt
experience of many honest
and clear-sighted men
like Dr. Yunus.
Dr. Yunus knows the
dangers of inflated
expectations. This summer,
when we were fortunate
enough to spend a couple
of hours listening to
him in his office in
Dhaka, he talked animatedly
about the many things
that still needed to
be done: Bigger loans
that allow businesses
to grow, ways to help
talented children of
the poor to go college,
something to help those
who are too poor even
to get micro-credit,
and many others. Some
of those have been launched
already-the rest are
on the anvil. They are
experiments, he said-the
search for better answers
continues. A brave man
with the will to keep
trying: congratulations
to him.
Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee
is Ford Foundation International
Professor of Economics,
MIT.
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