The current dismal situation of economy is the result of ignoring the agricultural sector of the country. But the contribution of the agriculture sector of our country to GDP is 16.38%. If we include fish then it will be 21%. From 2007, the inflation is going up frequently. This is because of low production in agriculture, increased fuel price in the international market and natural disasters such as our two floods and one heavy cyclone. We had trade deficit of $3.5 billion in the last fiscal year-that is we imported goods worth $16 billion and exported $12.5 billion. Within the last 15 years, it is the highest level of deficit ever.

Besides, price of essential goods is also increasing in the international market and even big producing and exporting countries of rice such as China, India and Pakistan are also importing rice. What is more, some countries-for example America-are converting food items into bio-diesel. Indeed most of the developed countries are now converting food grains specially corns into bio fuel. India and Canada are also trying to follow the path. For all these reasons, the overall supply of food items in the international market has declined. So, the supply of food in 2008 is unlikely to increase. As a result, the food price is expected to remain high and so is the inflation in 2008. In Bangladesh inflation is mainly dependent on the price of crops. The price of rice is the most important aspect for measuring the market situation, especially in rural areas. Another important thing is that the incomes of people haven't increased much. Average income may have increased but it doesn't denote that every person's income has increased.

In our economy cost push inflation is active because of rising price in energy and food prices and also because of income disparity. On the other hand demand pull inflation is seen to be active in a country when industries build up, employment arises, income is created and purchasing power increases, which is not the case for Bangladesh. The 'real' income of the people has not increased. When real income or purchasing power increases the market or economy has the chance to expand.

It is essential to contain this high rise in inflation in the country. If this inflation rate remains constant then our economy may collapse. And this is also harmful for an economy which is dependent mostly on import. In this new year we need to import 40 lakh tones of crops. The inflation rate in 2008 will greatly depend on the production of our crops.

But then the performance of the agriculture sector in 2008 is quite uncertain. Farmers are still fighting for fertilizers and diesel. I am not optimistic about Boro crop production for this reason. Also, the price of diesel and fertilizers is increasing and so even if the production increases there will be little chance for the price of crop to go down. The government should ensure adequate and timely supply of fertilizer and electricity for the agriculture sector. I think that the agriculture sector can push our economy to progress. Also, the progress in SMEs will considerably depend on the progress in the agriculture sector.

In 2006-2007, 15.5% in GDP growth was from export. However, I do not think this trend will continue in 2008. The recent cyclone and the two floods will have great negative impact on export in 2008. Our export is not diversified and depends largely on a couple of sectors and mostly on knit & garments. But in the current fiscal year the growth of the garment sector has been unsatisfactory and the situation will not improve but rather can worsen as Bangladesh will be in stricter competition with China as the EU restrictions on RMG export from China is being withdrawn in 2008. Apart from this the industry is also likely to suffer from overall high price of fuel, insufficient electricity and the country's infrastructure problem. I think as Bangladesh is not a cotton producing country like China, Cambodia, Pakistan, India and Thailand, which are also in the garment business, the challenges for Bangladesh in the industry are more. So, Bangladesh should try to develop other industries which can have huge potential in the export market. For example, the jute industry can perform well and we can focus on increasing jute production in the country. But unfortunately this sector has been largely ignored and now we are almost shutting off the industry. It is also important that we create high value addition products and build more agro based industries in the country in order to boost the export of the country.

Since the economy of Bangladesh was greatly controlled by big business magnates in the country many of whom are facing corruption charges the investment has been hugely affected by ant-corruption drive. However, this is a temporary effect. Investment in 2008 will largely depend on how the economy of the country will perform. In 2007 the investment situation has been really bad because of political instability, natural disaster, bureaucracy problem, infrastructure and heavy disruption in the supply of electricity but in 2008 if these issues are addressed then we can see an increase in the investment in the middle of the year. Apart from Garments and Textile Industries investments should be attracted to other sectors like fertilizer and more importantly to pharmaceuticals. If local investment does not take place then foreign investment will not come. So, the Government should greatly encourage investments of SMEs. Also supply of electricity has to be greatly increased if we want to see any greater development. From one of my researches I have seen that just one third of our villages is getting the facility

	of electricity, and in those villages the progress rate in agriculture, education, and health is enormous. Indeed, if electricity supply is ensured in every village of Bangladesh then within 10 to 15 years the country will not need to depend on foreign investment.

We need to provide subsidies in the agricultural sector of the country. America is providing subsidy in their agriculture sector which is half of our total GDP. Developed countries are giving subsidies for their own agriculture sector six times more than the total aid they give to the developing countries. USA is providing 3 thousand 6 billion dollar subsidy to 25 thousand cotton farmers, which is much larger than the budget of our country. EU is providing $2.5 subsidy to each cow which is more than the average per head income of Bangladeshi people. So, what's wrong if we provide subsidy? Subsidy in the agriculture sector should be provided on a priority basis. Indeed, timely disbursement of subsidies to the farmers should be ensured.

I am optimistic about remittance flow in the country. This will ensure a satisfactory reserve. However, $5 billion reserve is not much in terms of reserve. India has $180 billion while Pakistan has $25 billion.

Although half of the Fiscal year has passed, we have hardly utilized 15% of ADP when we should have utilized 50% of it. This has a great negative impact on our economy.

About IMF policies, I would say round the world IMF policies do not get much appreciation. This is because IMF policy asks for reduction of investment in government sectors, withdrawal of subsidy, opening up of the market and so on which are often harmful for the economy of a developing country. Many countries like Argentina, Chili, Pakistan, Malaysia and African countries have withdrawn IMF policy.

The greatest achievement of this government has been the steps taken against corruption and the major failure has been not being able to increase agricultural production by ensuring adequate supply of fertilizers, power and so on.