Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total final value of all the goods and services produced in a given country, in a year.

Economic data, Nov 7th 2007 (From the Economist Intelligence Unit)

Source: Country Data

l The political scene will remain unsettled during the early part of the forecast period. An electoral road map schedules the next general election for October 2008, by which time electoral reforms should have been completed. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that delays relating to the monsoon season (June-September) are likely to push the election date back to December 2008 or even 2009. Such a delay would intensify concerns about the possible imposition of official military rule and the indefinite suspension of the democratic process. Assuming that an election is eventually held, it is likely to be a contest between long-established rivals, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

l The biggest risk to political stability centres on the timing of the next general election. Besides the length of time that it will take to complete the necessary reforms to the electoral process, the timing of the delayed election could be complicated further by inclement weather. Monsoon rains, which occur during June-September, rule out much of the second half of 2008. A sustained campaign of violence by any of the numerous militant groups in Bangladesh is another threat to political stability. Although the leading figures in two of the four main banned militant groups in the country have been executed, a huge network of full- and part-time activists remains intact.

l Relations with India are expected to improve during the forecast period. High-ranking officials from Bangladesh and India have agreed to co-operate on a range of economic and security issues, and this process is expected to continue in 2008-12.

l Economic policy in the forecast period will focus on continued economic liberalisation, although progress will be slow. Bangladesh will seek to attract foreign direct investment, particularly in the textile industry. Efforts to diversify the tax base and improve revenue collection will achieve some success. Demand for energy will continue to outstrip supply, but the situation should improve slightly from 2008 as new power plants come on stream.

l Real GDP growth will average 6.4% a year in 2008-12, driven largely by strong private consumption and gross fixed investment expansion. The economy will remain dependent on both the agricultural sector-which provides the main stimulus to private consumption-and the textile industry, which accounts for the country's largest category of exports. Record inflows of expatriate workers' remittances will ensure that the current account remains in surplus for much of the forecast period.