Attaining food security is a major challenge for Bangladesh particularly at a time when global food prices are high and major rice exporting countries are known to restrict their export. To ensure food security through increased domestic production, Bangladesh has undertaken a special program for higher production of Boro rice this season. Boro is the principal rice crop of Bangladesh and provides about 55 percent of total rice production.

A major problem in assessing the food availability situation in the country is the estimates and figures on domestic production, population and food consumption pattern provided by government and those provided by private sector bodies do not match each other. The government figures try to portray Bangladesh as self sufficient or nearly self sufficient in food grain production despite the increasing food grain imports. Moreover net availability of food grain is estimated after adjustment of 10 percent loss on animal feed and seed & wastage, which is often said to be lower than the actual loss. Due to the lower rate of loss calculation, the figures on yearly availability of food grain are over estimated.

In reality, the net domestic production is not sufficient to meet the requirement of cereals by the growing number of people in the country. Every year the remaining food gap is met by import of food grain (government commercial import, import under food aid and private import) which is gradually increasing.

Food security at the national level depends on the availability of food from domestic production and imports from the international markets. On the other hand, food security at the household level depends not only on availability of food but also on the ability to purchase food by the household. Households with adequate income can buy food from the market if it is available but low income households face problems in buying food when food prices are high. For such low income group, government distributes food through priced (such as OMS) and non-priced channels (VGD, VGF, Food for Works, etc.). Therefore, a major challenge for the government is to balance the interest of producers and consumers through government procurement and Public Food Distribution System (PFDS).

Almost every year rural areas in Bangladesh are struck by a near famine situation before the annual harvest. This periodic food insecurity is predominantly related to the traditional system of subsistence agricultural, feudal land tenure arrangements and exploitative loan and mortgage system in the rural credit market.

Natural calamities like river bank erosion, flood and drought just add to the woe. In the northern part of Bangladesh the severe food shortage situation is popularly known as 'Monga', whereas in other parts of the country 'Akal' is a more known term; both bearing the same meaning i.e. severe scarcity of food, mainly rice.

The pre-harvest period is the lean season in agricultural production. The agricultural lean period occurs twice a year lasting one to two months. The longest lean period starts in mid September and continues until mid November when the harvesting of Aman paddy starts. Another lean period, which is shorter in length, lasts from mid March until the harvesting of Boro rice in mid April.

The last large harvest is indeed good news for the country. However, Bangladesh's food security worries are far from over. The 2010 crop has been put in jeopardy by the late onset of the monsoon. Poor rains in June and the first half of July have delayed planting in many parts of the country. The downpour in late July came as a relief but the late rains have once again highlighted the vulnerability of Bangladesh's agricultural sector. With many scientists predicting that the country's weather woes will only worsen in future, it is essential new farming techniques and seed varieties be developed.

At the time of independence Aman accounted for the bulk of rice production in Bangladesh but since 1999 it is Boro.  In 2008-09 an area of 4.53 million hectare (ha) on average was under Boro production yielding about 18.06 million metric tonnes (mt) of rice. Currently, Boro occupies about 43.3 per cent of the total rice production area and contributes 59.4 per cent of total rice production in Bangladesh. On the other hand, Aman occupies 48.0 per cent of the total rice production area and contributes 35.4 per cent of total production. Aus (another rice variety) is cultivated in about 8.7 per cent of the total rice production area and contributes 5.4 per cent of total rice production.

Structural change in rice production in Bangladesh and more dependence on Boro season has made rice production a function of input supply, policies and prices rather than vagaries of nature. This structural change has made attainment and sustenance of food security much of a matter of governance and management. It has also posed serious challenges for the government and development agencies particularly in ensuring availability of inputs at a reasonable price and finding an appropriate balance between the interest of the producers and the consumers.

On 23rd December 2009, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) held a dialogue on action plan and challenges aimed at achieving targeted Boro production in the fiscal year 2009-10 at the CIRDAP Auditorium in Dhaka. Begum Matia Chowdhury, MP, Honorable Minister for Agriculture, Government of Bangladesh, attended the dialogue as Chief Guest and Mr. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Former State Minister for Agriculture and Senior Joint Secretary General, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, was present as Special Guest. Top level officials of Ministry of Agriculture, agricultural scientists, members of the parliament, academicians, economists, representatives of farmers' organizations and many other dignitaries were present at the dialogue. Professor    Rehman Sobhan, Chairman, CPD chaired the session and Dr. Uttam Deb, Head of Research, CPD, made a presentation  bringing to light the possibilities and  challenges of achieving the Boro rice production  target in  fiscal   year    2009-10.

The dialogue provided some alarming information and recommended measures for dealing with the difficulties. Global rice production in 2009-10 is going to be lower than the previous year. According to the USDA Rice Outlook (December 11, 2009), global rice production in 2009-10 will decline by 3.0 per cent and production will be 433.9 million tons. Decline in production is primarily due to reduction in area. Substantial decline in production in India, due to erratic monsoon, has been forecast. Rice production in the Philippines is going to be lower due to damage from several typhoons. Production in Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina is likely to drop by 5 percent because of drought. FAD Rice Market Monitor (September 2009) also predicted a decline in global rice production in 2010.

The discussion brought home how crucial it is for us to achieve the target of Boro production. If we failed           to achieve the target then we would have to import rice and the price of rice in the international market is very high. The problem has occurred mainly because Philippines is importing huge amounts of rice and India, one of the major rice producing countries, has imposed a ban on rice export. The price of rice already increased 40% last month due to the shortage of rice in the international market. Mahbub Hossain, executive director of BRAC, observed if we have to import rice in this situation, we may have to pay as much as Tk. 50 per Kg  of rice.

A comparison of rice prices in Bangladesh, India and Thailand revealed since July 2006 rice price in Bangladesh has been lower than that in Thailand and generally lower than that in India with some exceptions. It is clear that even if Bangladesh is able to import from the international market it will be at a higher cost than the current domestic price. In other words, feeding our own population at a lower cost is only possible through self-sufficiency in rice production.

Though in terms of production, FY2008-09 was a good year but it was a disappointing year for Boro rice growers in terms of profitability. During the harvesting period, farm level price of coarse rice and paddy was so low that farmers had to sell their paddy at a price lower than the cost of production (CPD, 2009). A farm level visit by a team of CPD researchers in mid-May 2009 to selected areas of Naogaon, Rangpur, Bogra and Mymensingh revealed that at the then prevailing market price of paddy farmers' loss was about Tk.1700 - Tk.4000 per acre.

Efficiency of water use for irrigation is low in Bangladesh. Scientists have already proved that adoption of  'Alternate Wet and Dry' (AWD) irrigation technology for Boro rice cultivation can save 25 per cent irrigation water and also save energy (electricity, diesel) without reducing the yield level. Therefore, special efforts should be made to promote AWD instead of current practice of constant irrigation with standing water in the field. This technology was widely publicized last year as 'magic pipe'. It is expected that farmers in many areas will take advantage of the better irrigation technique. In spite of that special efforts by the DAE and media to promote it further will be required in FY2009-10. This will reduce per unit production cost of rice. Introduction of System of Rice Intensification (SRI)1 has also the potentiality for reduction in cost and increase in yield. Special efforts should be made to promote SRI technology.

More than 70 per cent of the total irrigation in Bangladesh depends on diesel-operated engines. It is pertinent to mention here that irrigation cost in Bangladesh is two to three times higher than in India, Thailand and Vietnam, because Bangladeshi farmers have to use diesel for irrigation while for farmers of other countries there is scope for irrigating through subsidized electricity and large-scale irrigation projects.

Considering the low price Boro farmers got for their produce in the post-harvest period, the farmers may feel reluctant to cultivate Boro. Some measures taken by the government such as reduction in non-urea fertilizer prices and expansion of agricultural credit are expected to encourage the farmers. However government needs to design its Boro procurement program bearing in mind the following issues:

l         cost of Boro production

l         adequate incentives for the Boro rice           growers

l         market price at the time of fixation              of price

l         price affordability as far as consum              ers are concerned, and

l         increased public stock of rice

According to the CPD research it is    apparent that the Boro production target in fiscal year 2009-10 set by Ministry of Agriculture is quite high. It is 6.7% higher in terms of production and 1.8% higher in terms of production area compared to the fiscal year 2008-09. Farmers of Bangladesh are responsive to the prices, policies and technologies. If the price of last year prevails then the farmers will be reluctant to cultivate Boro. Last year the price of Boro paddy was Tk. 14 per Kg and that of rice was     Tk. 22 per Kg but this year weighted average cost of Boro paddy is Tk. 11.43 per Kg and that of rice is Tk. 18.22 per Kg. So, the margin farmers would get is very low and they might switch to cultivating other cash crops. The researchers suggest that the government should set the procurement price of paddy at Tk. 15 per Kg and that of rice at Tk. 25 per Kg and the government should declare the price immediately to influence farmers' decision actions.

The Chief Guest of the session Begum Matia Chowdhury said there is no situation for people to panic at this moment as we have a bumper Aman harvest this year which will exceed our target. According to her, the higher Aman production will help the country achieve its overall food production target of 35.25 million metric tons this fiscal year. She added that we are growing Boro in southern districts of Bangladesh in addition to highlands. She appreciated CPD for holding this kind of dialogue but she also asked them to come up with a direction for five years and not just one year. She mentioned the population problem of the country; every year 300,000 hungry mouths are emerging while resources are decreasing. She appealed to the masses for keeping the family size small.

It is always a great challenge to pay the declared procurement price to the farmers. It is easy to procure from big rice mills to fulfill the target and minimize transaction cost and overcome technical difficulties in procuring paddy directly from the farmers and managing it afterwards. On the other hand if procured from the large auto-rice mills then farm level prices often remain much lower than declared procurement prices. To overcome this problem the following steps may be considered:

l Procure  from  the small rice millers who have limited financial processing and storage capacity.

l Encourage  farmers   to  set  up  rice mills by forming cooperatives.

l Encourage   establishment   of  grain storage facilities at the union level through public private partnership where farmers will be able to store their grains on a rental basis.

In addition to the steps already taken by the government to ensure attaining targeted Boro production the following measures may also be considered:

Seed Supply

In view of the reports on seed scarcity in some areas, agencies and committees concerned should monitor the situation and ensure supply in the areas where there is need.

Fertilizer delivery

In the case of fertilizers, farmers in some areas have been facing quality problem, with adulterated and contaminated fertilizers sold to them. Relevant authorities should monitor the situation and take firm actions.

Electricity for irrigation and subsidy for diesel

Ensuring electricity and diesel supply for irrigation is another challenge for higher Boro production. To confirm uninterrupted electricity supply, government has already declared steps. Faithful and timely implementation is expected. For diesel driven pumps, timely disbursement of the declared diesel subsidy will be required.

Procurement strategy

Government should declare procurement price now for Boro farmers to keep up their spirit and endeavor. Any of delay in declaring procurement price and storing system might adversely affect the production. Government procurement centers can be established so that farmers can directly sell their product at these points. A decentralized storage chain in rural areas needs to be constructed immediately. Construction of store-houses at union level through public-private partnership (PPP) can be a useful option.

Others

Agricultural forecast system should be modernized and easily accessible to the farmers so that they can take the best cultivation strategy for higher production. In this regard, government should revive Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) to get effective forecast support.

Protection against smuggling of agricultural inputs, especially fertilizer and diesel, to neighboring countries should be ensured. Media can play an important role in raising agricultural production through providing information on efficient use of seeds and fertilizer, time and technique of cultivation, procedure of irrigation, preventing diseases and preventing huge harvest loss due to catastrophic events.

In order to achieve a reasonable degree of food security, which should prove essential in the near future considering the gradual decrease in global stocks coupled with increasing demand for grains driven by the biofuel industry, the government should firstly gather enough information and data about the availability or sufficiency, or the lack thereof, of essential food items in the ideal food basket. Thereafter, the exercise should concentrate on ensuring either enough production of those food items or import of them. This, of course, must be planned well in advance and the entire exercise should be initiated without further delay.

ET Report by Abu Md. Saif al Saad