The global economic scenario looks slightly bright in 2010 and brighter beyond. A recent statement by the Government of Australia regarding downplaying a slightly optimistic forecasting of their economic recovery in the 1st quarter of 2010 signaled that the world financial crisis has not ended yet. In North America and Europe, the financial sector has seen its bottoms during 2008 and 2009. Some have commented that the world may experience a 'W' shaped recession; however, thanks to the judicious handling of the chaos, these countries actually averted the recession and made steady progress in charting their economic journey out of the meltdown. Cynics however have commented that this era of recessionary pressure will lead to a sustained period of depression and eclipse in magnitude the 'great depression' of the early 20th century. Bangladesh has played a positive role during the financial meltdown and administered a series of measures in anticipation of potentially harmful exposures and controlled its balance of payments, currency baskets, and international deposits and also brought back most of our funds placed in foreign banks. This article attempts to bring out crucial issues relevant to the success and sustainability and direct the discussion towards the recent climate change conference in Copenhagen, our associated fate and steps to take.
Copenhagen Conference
The Prime Minister of Bangladesh came back from Copenhagen with an assurance that has raised a certain level of optimism for Bangladesh in spite of the serious implications of climate change taking place, Bangladesh will probably receive a small amount of climate change adaptation fund which is close to tk 700 crore. Common sense says that a small token is better than nothing. While we ought to use the proceeds in the most productive manner, Bangladesh needs to keep its voice up in the global platform for arresting the climate change that is breathing a heavy toll on many countries, especially on us. We need to develop a comprehensive strategy plan and pinpoint our areas of environmental degradation, related economic and emotion costs and keep our lobby strong at the world level so that we are not handed down small gifts like those for beggars in the coming days. The reason for this emphatic statement is to make sure that the readers of this article know that our carbon footprints are a miniscule figure when compared to the industrial West; unfortunately, the thrust of all the climate change may fall squarely on Bangladesh and a handful of countries. The suggested and perhaps to be allocated funds by the UN, other world bodies or individual countries will cover only a small dent to the already precarious environmental condition that the industrially advanced countries have created.
Collective Bargaining
Small countries individually have next to no voice in the global frontiers where the larger countries dominate by their sheer force stemming from political and economic muscle. The climate conference has raised some key unaddressed issues and the larger countries do not want to bear the economic cost of the environmental degradation; they have been known to cleverly maneuver and use political guise in diverting attention from their irresponsible industrial behavior spawning the cataclysmic downward spiral of our earth that we treasure. The conference could not negotiate a binding commitment of 'polluter pays principle.' Fortunately, some funds commitments were arrived at for climate change adaptation and additional hope of support was extended but not penned in black. A second round of conference in Mexico was proposed by President Barrack Obama in addressing and ironing out the differences and working in unison to save the planet earth. Some views of the world leaders were clearly commendable but many comments seemed like political hyperbole and many outside the conference showed their frustrations in placards, banners and festoons. These voices were not properly heard and only a few minutes for some country heads were allocated to discuss these issues from individual country perspective. The world view was clearly being pushed by G-8 and G-20 and the scope of voicing the real concerns the climate change will bring to the LDCs were muted.
Pledging of Additional Climate Change Funds
The world must not renege on its promise to offer the true value of the brunt of the climate change that is surely taking place in parts of Asia and Africa; this amount is no less than a few dozen trillion dollars. A small country like Bangladesh does not have adequate land mass to support its teeming millions; therefore, the climate change may not only create 'environmental refugees' but also create huge emotional loss to many people who would have to vacate their ancestral land and move north in search of new habitation. The emotional loss has not been quantified and the Government of Bangladesh, along with the other affected countries, may develop a benchmark assessment tool to capture their losses addressing all of these issues and put them into a monetized form for recovery at the global level. Pure and simple, the waste and greed of the West cannot be left unaddressed and more significantly, the direct and indirect costs should be borne by these polluting countries as a group.
Free Rider's Effect and our Plight
In economics, the theory of 'free rider's effect' is well propounded by the US academia and now the same theory needs to be applied when discussions for climate change is tabled. The West had been free riding on global ignorance for the longest time and the world only woke up recently; in spite of repeated clarion calls by the scientific community, due to not having support of the political bigwigs, the West continued to rape the environment unceremoniously and some of the past leaders were rather reluctant to really talk about these issues as they had a mindset that the environment is of much lesser importance than other issues. The capitalist lobby follows mostly the 'maximization of profit rules' without looking at the stakeholder issues in much earnest; they played the second fiddle so that the political lobby in favor of environmental safeguarding was negated by the false and incorrectly assumed issue of job losses resulting from taking actions to make the factories and products of the West more energy efficient and less polluting. Due to these preconceived, fallacious arguments, the real task of arresting the environmental downslide was left unattended to. When significant and measurable changes started to occur with global temperatures rising, melting of icebergs in the North Pole, the world started to tremble and by dint of sheer citizens' concern the countries of the West had no recourse but to analyze the global environment and realize that we have entered a period of dramatic and almost irreconcilable environmental damage.
Political Commitment
The world leaders at the Copenhagen summit had perhaps a strong desire to come to a common ground of support and mitigation planning of reducing the individual country's carbon di-oxide emissions (which is the primary reason for global warming and related environmental catastrophe). Unfortunately, countries like China, Brazil, India, etc. felt threatened that their industrial progress may be stagnating, if indeed they are to comply with a heavy reduction of carbon di-oxide emissions and subsequently blamed the West for creating the mess. Through 'blame shifting' on the West they left the negotiating table without a firm commitment. These contentious issues are not helping Bangladesh and other smaller countries; therefore, Bangladesh may take the lead to develop a common platform of countries that are being severely affected due to the ongoing disagreements between some of the larger countries. This group may also lobby for our case at the international level and articulate clearly that unless a decision on capping by the larger countries is agreed upon, Bangladesh and this group of countries continue to lose, causing accelerated environmental damage that these countries will also need to absorb on top of the trillions of dollars of damage that has already been incurred.
Climate change has become a reality that both the government and the opposition must take into consideration. We need to combine our efforts mustering support from all walks of life by rising beyond partisan lines as we are faced with a grave and harmful national condition. The government may take prudent steps to fund research in the field of climate change and identify probable solutions to mitigate the risks of climate change. The government may invite our scientists in different fields to develop our agricultural strategy, food security strategy, and strategies to reduce energy cost and introduce energy efficient machinery and lightings; put strong emphasis away from fossil fuel and onto the development of alternative fuels. A pressing issue for Bangladesh is energy and that the Government may create special low-interest funds or matching funds for solar-energy driven projects and promote businesses in relevant fields. Recycle waste into energy and rain-water harvesting are other probable areas of further exploration.
Conclusion
The population continues to grow in Bangladesh and urban migration has accelerated due to a myriad of reasons and environmental degradation being a vital component. While we need to clearly understand our total cost of climate change backed by scientific numbers and verified by international bodies, Bangladesh also needs to do its share of carbon di-oxide emissions reduction and focus on energy conservation and keep the environment clean. A national resolve must be taken by a clear and strategic support of the Government of Bangladesh to raise the collective understanding of the dangers of climate change and how each individual can play a role in the collective well being of Bangladesh and the universe
.Ziaur Rahman is CEO, IITM and reachable at luckytoaccess@gmail.com
