The world saw fuel price more than double in the span of the last 15 years and experts predict further rise in price despite a slightly reduced level on the price chart in the last few days of May 2008. The current credit crunch and dollar depreciation are but the apparent of the factors while the driving force is the fear that estimates of worldwide oil reserves may have been much too exaggerated. According to Earth Trends and BP, Saudi Arabia has the largest reserves, which was estimated at 36038 million tons in 2005, but the country has been witnessing a sharp fall in the production of oil for some time now as much for lack of spares as for a squeeze on its capacity. Moreover ET&BP failed to take into account the ever growing increase in worldwide fuel consumption, which was 3.4 percent in 2004, according to a Worldwatch Institute report. Pessimistic as it may sound, when put to the test the theory that the world has now 37 years of oil reserves seems based on a wishful myth rather than the reality down rig.

Pertinent to the above is the controversy over gas reserves in Bangladesh. Studies conducted by different groups have revealed different results -- gas resource of 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 33.5 Tcf and 41.6 Tcf - and the fact of the matter is none of the studies is definitive. To add to the uncertainty, the advisor in charge of the relevant ministry made a cataclysmic observation recently about serious depletion of the fuel and to bear him out, as it were, already a number of factories, in Chittagong in particular, have had to put up the shutters.

Gas was the lead story of the March 2003 issue of the Executive Times, and back then we concluded on the basis of expert opinions that a comprehensive power policy needed to be worked out giving utmost priority to our national interests. Gas export was not opposed nor was it encouraged; the emphasis was on ensuring regular and steady supply of gas for domestic consumption for at least 30 years. We still stick with our previous position, suggesting further gas exploration preferably offshore. There is no forgetting the hazards irresponsible mining caused to the environment in the past.

In fact fuel security has never been a more pressing concern in Bangladesh. The government is caught between a rock and a hard place: there is a constant pressure from donor agencies to increase fuel price drastically and there is the awareness that the move is an essentially unpopular one which no governments would ever take if they could. Moreover, given that our economy is limping along, its ability to sustain the ripple effect of a government sponsored price rise at this stage is open to question. Also of dubious effects are such measures as giving extra money to government employees and fattening the tax torso.

It is cynical of a state to raise its income when its people's income falls. A pro-people government knows how to manage its budget with monetary constraints and prioritize people's wellbeing.