Pertinent to the present day global context where sustainability of life on our planet is being seriously studied against the backdrop of climate change, fresh concern is being voiced over the growing number of earth's inhabitants, despite drastic reduction in population growth achieved worldwide over the years. According to Population Reference Bureau, world population is expected to rise from current 6.8 billion to 7 billion in the latter half of 2011 and to 8.1 billion by 2025. The less developed countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to register about 50 percent increase by 2050.

The grim scenario was further highlighted by Ms. Hania Zlotnik, director, population division department of economic and social affairs to the 42nd session of the commission for population and development, in her cautionary statement at the UN on 30 March 2009. "Globally, 1.2 billion inhabitants have been added to Earth since the 1994 Conference took place and another 1.1 billion will likely be added over the next 15 years, even if the speed of population growth continues to decline. Furthermore, virtually all that population growth will occur in developing countries and the population of the least developed countries will grow the fastest."Although population count has never been definitive, given demographic changes and socio-politico-religious factors especially in developing countries, the figures above fairly reliably reflect the magnitude of the problem the world at large is having to grapple with. Looked at from individual country perspectives, however, population may not be everyone's headache. For example Libya, a country with about 1,800,000 square kilometres (694,984 sq miles) in area but which has only 162 million people, may claim the country is under populated or for that matter the Republic of Singapore, a city state that has an area of 710.2 sq km (274.2 sq miles) whereas its population is a staggering 5 million having about 130 times the world average density, may not be overpopulated given its $260 billion's worth of GDP, but, as British economist Norman Myers points it out, population problem needs to be viewed from a number of perspectives including its impact on the environment. Contrasting Britain with Bangladesh in terms of population induced pollution, Myers observes, "… each new Briton consumes 50 times as much fossil fuels as each new Bangladeshi, meaning that population growth in Britain causes at least as much global warming as does the 45 times larger population increase in Bangladesh. Yet Britain has no population policy at all. We have never asked ourselves how many people are good for Britain, let alone how many Britons are good for the world."

That does not mean population does not pose a problem for Bangladesh. Even if population density, which in the case of Bangladesh is way above 1120 people per square kilometer, were not to be considered, by any other yardstick, the country would be regarded as overpopulated. Bernard Gilland writes, "Many believe that overpopulation is related to a high population density, but this is obviously false." Granted, his own definition testifies that Bangladesh has more than the maximum number of people it should ideally have. "The only defensible definition of overpopulation is in relation to a country's ability to feed its inhabitants. If a country's agriculture and fisheries, together with its food and feed imports, are insufficient to provide the population with a satisfactory average diet, the country in question should be considered as overpopulated." Bangladesh has an area of only about 144,000 sq km (55,598 sq miles) and its population is currently estimated at 162 million; its per capita real GDP is a meagre $620 and about 40 per cent of its population live below the poverty line. Compounding the problem are the volatility of the international market for the country's major exports - garments and manpower - and its vulnerability to natural disasters. If not now, with its current growth rate of 1.292% the population of Bangladesh may well be a big liability in the near future.

That said, the country's achievements in recent years have been noteworthy. The 1974 census first ever since Bangladesh came into being put the population at 71 million which increased to 87 million in 1981 and about 110 million in 1988 showing a 2.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent annual growth rate respectively. But then growth fell to almost 2 per cent in 2008. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 1971 was about seven children per woman; in 2007 TFR came down to about three and now in 2009 it is 2.74. Likewise adult literacy rate in Bangladesh has improved significantly, now standing at more than 60%.

But enough is not always enough. As well as pursuing sound economic policy, Bangladesh needs to achieve at least zero growth of its population by 2015 in order to be able to reduce poverty to any significant extent in keeping with MDG. No religion in its true spirit can be a barrier to a humanitarian cause. Therefore those who say family planning is in conflict with religion only encourage zealotry to the detriment of national interests.

The following is what two of the most prominent economists in Bangladesh had to say in answer to some specific population-related questions asked by ET.

Dr. Mustafa Kamal Mujeri, Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS):

Data

According to the Population Census 2001, the population of Bangladesh in 2001 was 130 million. The estimated population in 2008/09 is 144.2 million. In 2007, the crude birth rate and crude death rate per 1,000 people are estimated at 20.9 and 6.3 respectively. According to the government estimate, the population growth rate is 1.26 percent in 2008/09 although UN and other international organizations use higher population growth figures. According to government statistics, the literacy rate (11 years and above) in the country was 49.1 percent in 2008.

On Action and Initiatives

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world with 977 people living per square km. In order to reduce population growth, the government has formulated the National Population Policy in the light of International Conference on Population and Development. The target is to achieve net reproduction rate of 1 by 2010 and ensure a contraceptive prevalence rate of 72 percent by 2011. Under the Health, Nutrition and Population Sector Programme (HNPSP), the government has initiated several actions for population control including re-introduction of health service delivery through inspection by family welfare visitors, reduction of dropouts by ensuring follow-up visits, switching over to long term birth control arrangements, bringing the low performing and slum areas under service delivery coverage, increasing male participation in family planning programmes, encouraging late marriage, and increasing the quality of health and family welfare services.

On Population Growth

Whether a country's size of the population is an asset or a liability depends on many factors including the availability of complementary resources. As we all know, although the growth rate of population has been declining in Bangladesh, its absolute size is increasing fast. Every year, around 2 million people are added to the total population. This creates a huge pressure on availability of other resources and services including infrastructure, housing facilities, and provision of food, health, education and other basic services. Moreover, per capita availability of agricultural land is declining fast due to diversion of agricultural land to meet non-agricultural requirements. It is important therefore for Bangladesh to reduce population growth further to avoid undue pressure on other resources and fulfill the basic needs of the population within the shortest possible time.

On Productive Capacity

The productive capacity of our population is low mainly due to the fact that the majority of the country's labour force has low education and productive skills. Also the population structure is somewhat unbalanced with a high economic dependency ratio. So, for maximizing productivity, it is important to improve the quality of the labour force through providing education, improving skills, and upgrading technology.

On Poverty

Obviously, a high growth rate of population makes it more difficult to reduce poverty as the demand for resources rises to meet the basic needs of an expanding population. This raises the demand for food and other basic necessities and the households, especially the poor households, find it difficult to ensure food security, meet health and education needs of their children, and meet risks and uncertainties emerging from natural and manmade calamities.

On Remittance

The amount of remittance depends on two things: first, the number of people going abroad with overseas employment; second, the skill of the workers. One must realize that the employment prospects of Bangladeshi workers abroad depend on the demand for such workers in the global labour market. There is no reason to believe that we would be able to export as many workers as we want. We have to explore the demand prospects of different categories of workers, competition from other manpower exporting countries, and a host of other factors to successfully exploit foreign employment opportunities.

Final Words

Immediately after independence, the government recognized the severity of the population problem and undertook various measures to contain the population growth rate. As a result, the population growth rate declined rapidly from about 3 percent per year in the 1970s to 1.5 percent in the 1990s. But we need to do still more to reduce the population growth rate further and ensure a net reproduction rate of 1 by 2010.

Dr. Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD):

Data

According to the latest data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the estimated population in 2008-09 is 144.2 million. This figure is estimated based on the projection from the last population census in 2001. We will have the latest figure in 2011. In 2007 the overall birth rate was 20.9 per 1000 and the death rate 6.3 per 1000. So roughly the population growth rate in 2007 was 1.4% per annum.

The adult (15+) literacy rate was 56.3% in 2007, projected from the last population census in 2001 by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In addition, I would like to mention that the male literacy rate was 63.1% and female literacy rate 53.5%. Overall the literacy rate was 56.3% in 2007.

On Population Growth

The latest data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics shows that the population growth rate is 1.26% per annum at present. It's quite an improvement on the 1980 growth rate, which was 3.2%. But the rate needs to fall further down to around 1%. It will all depend on whether Bangladesh is able to achieve the target of bringing down the total fertility rate, which was 3.3 in 2003, to 2 by 2011.

On Skill and Productivity

We all know that Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. So to bring down the population growth rate remains a major challenge. I think our focus should be on bringing down the growth rate through population control. I don't think population is not a problem for Bangladesh but then population is also an asset if we can translate that population into productive human resources.

It is our social and national responsibility to convert our large population into a resource base. Well, we can do so by investing in the social sector, ensuring quality education and proper health care.

On Poverty

Obviously poverty will be a great challenge for Bangladesh if we are unable to reduce the population growth rate timely. At the same time I don't think that if we are able to reduce the population growth rate poverty will be reduced automatically.

On Remittance

The demand for labor on the global labor market is limited. So we cannot say if we have more people we will be able to earn more remittances. At present most of our labor force are unskilled whereas demand for skilled labor is higher and skilled labor accounts for more remittances than unskilled labor. For example the Philippines earn more remittances than us though their labor is less than half of ours.

Final Words

Bangladesh has some remarkable achievements with respect to reduction in the population growth rate. But Government needs to do more; it should be active in spreading out family planning and it should have some policy related to social movement in this regard. Again the quality of education and sanitation for all is relevant here.

ET Report